Tuesday, February 21, 2006

The False Consensus Effect

It used to annoy me, and still does to a lesser extent, when women would say things like "men are such bastards". Um, no, my friends aren't. I think most of my mates are fairly decent, but obviously there are plenty of bastards out there. Similarly, when you see morons performing mindless acts (an endless list of examples here) in the news and you ask yourself, who the hell does that? You'd (like to) think that none of your friends would ever do anything that stupid.

Well, it turns out this phenomena has a name, as I discovered on Wiki:

The false consensus effect refers to the tendency for people to overestimate the degree to which others agree with them. People readily guess their own opinions, beliefs and predilections as being more prevalent in the general public than they really are.

This bias is commonly present in a group setting where one thinks the collective opinion of their own group matches that of the larger population. Since the members of a group reach a consensus and rarely encounter those who dispute it, they tend to believe that everybody thinks the same way.

It would appear it's quite easy to end up living in an ivory tower, so to speak. I suppose it pays to chop and change friends and lifestyles if you want to know what everyone else is thinking. Then again, you simply might not care.

4 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Otherwise known as the "circle jerk".

I think the most famous example is the Journalist Pauline Kael who, in 1972 wrote "How did Nixon win? I don't know anyone who voted for him..."

7:22 pm  
Blogger Engels said...

Actually, I think that's how I found it...

7:28 pm  
Blogger Whitz said...

i was led to believe the circle jerk refers to group masturbation, soggy sayo style... my bad!

8:53 pm  
Blogger Engels said...

Right...isn't that a private school boy thing?

9:23 pm  

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